Perhaps I enjoy arguing or playing devil's advocate, but it seems as if I take the other sides stance a lot. I believe a part of it is to try to understand the other person's logic and how they came to their conclusion. I find some conclusions are from biased information, but from a trusted sources or political view. The truth is hard to hear sometimes. But honesty is how we identify problems and implement creative solutions.
Today's economic information (2/13/2013) seems to be fully of goods and bads. For every positive position there is a negative view and for every negative position there is a negative offset. It seems as if we printed so much money and created so much debt (including US IOUs) that all of the statistics appear to be true and false all at the same time.
A Possible Recession?
- 4th quarter 2012 GDP was negative (-0.3%)
- Two quarters in a row of negative GDP equals a recession
- 1st quarter 2012 GDP had a lot of construction activity due to warm weather
- 1st quarter 2013 appears to have a lot of bad weather (probably not a lot of contruction)
- 1st quarter 2013 has payroll tax increases and income tax increases due to the Health Care Act (taxpayers may not feel this immediately, but after a few months of lower paychecks they just might!)
The Economy Is Stable
- A broad reach for revenue growth for most small businesses
- Mega-corporate earnings are solid
- Productivity is falling due to an increase in hiring (less future unemployment?)
- Consumers continue to spend
Be prepared to implement creative solutions,
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